Foreign expected to continue to overweight the A-share market in the second half of the year

Foreign expected to continue to overweight the A-share market in the second half of the year

Moderator Sun Hua: In the second half of the year, through MSCI, the expansion of the FTSE Russell Index ‘s inclusion of the A factor, and the S & P Dow Jones Indices will formally split some stocks in September this year. The factor is 25%.

In addition, at the beginning of July this year, Liang Tao, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that next, he would become an insurance company with more 北京夜网 investment autonomy and further increase the proportion of securities investment.

This can be polished, and the capital market will have multiple incremental funds entering the market in the second half of the year.

  This year’s trainee reporter Liu Weijie, this year, the momentum of foreign inflows into the A-share market has continued, and in the second half of the year there will be multiple multinational queues to enter the venue.

Affected by the long-term capital characteristics of foreign capital, and the continuous improvement of the investor structure of A-shares, it is conducive to changing the style of A-share investment; at the same time, it also reflects the trend of opening up the capital market, which is fundamentallyFavorable for the development of the A-share market.

  According to the plan, in August and November of this year, MSCI’s A-factor will be weighted twice.

In addition, in September of this year, the second step in the “three steps” of the FTSE Russell Index will be completed for A shares; and the S & P Dow Jones Indices will be officially replaced with A shares in September.

  In this regard, Ma Lan, a senior strategic analyst at Wells Fargo Fund, told the Securities Daily reporter that whether it is MSCI, FTSE Russell, or S & P Dow Jones Indices A-shares, they will further promote the process of A-shares internationalization and continue to improve A-shares.The market ecological environment is conducive to the construction of a long-term healthy capital market at multiple levels, and it is also a step to increase the opening up to the outside world.

  MSCI will increase the weight twice in the second half of the year. MSCI will increase the weight of the A-share separation factor twice and eventually increase it to 20%.

Some senior people predict that the incremental funds brought by August and November will reach US $ 17 billion and US $ 30 billion, respectively.

  As the world ‘s second largest economy, although it may sometimes grow, it is still generally higher than the world ‘s major developed economies, and its economic structure is constantly being optimized and adjusted.

Therefore, as the most important securities market in emerging economies, the A-share market cannot be ignored by overseas investors in global asset allocation.

  Regarding MSCI’s continued expansion of the A-share division factor, Gu Huijun, a senior official of the Suning Financial Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that there are three main reasons: First, the need for MSCI’s simultaneous asset allocation, China’s economy is second only to the United States, Which ranks second in the world and should have a greater weight in MSCI; the second is the opening up of the tandem capital market and the improvement of related system construction, and the ability of A-shares to screen good companies is enhanced at the same time; the third is that A-shares are currently in global stocksThe “depression” of the assessment has higher configuration value.

  Qi Zongchao, a macro analyst at the Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, also told the Securities Daily reporter that due to its huge consumer base and complete manufacturing industry chain, some domestic high-quality companies have sustainable profitability and alternative international competitiveness.Investment opportunities have alternative attractiveness for overseas institutional investors.

  The “strong” of the two major indexes in September divided by September this year will also be a “happy” month in which the A-share market is open to the outside world. A-shares will account for 40% of the FTSE Russell Index, and the S & P Dow Jones Indices will officially A-sharesDivided by a division factor of 25%.

Ma Lan predicts that this will bring about 80 billion yuan of incremental funds to A shares.

  Ma Lan told reporters that the two major overseas indexes were divided by the stock market in September. As an important part of the process of capital market opening and internationalization of stocks, it will further strengthen the attitude of opening up.

At the same time, this is also an important opportunity for the rapid and progressive improvement of laws and regulations in the capital market, as well as the construction of mechanisms and systems.

  It is estimated that at the end of the first quarter of 2019, the amount of shares held by foreign institutions and individuals reached 1.

68 trillion yuan, the amount of bonds held reached 1.

82 trillion.

It is noteworthy that the proportion of foreign holdings has exceeded insurance for the first time, with public funds1.

The 95 trillion shareholding scale is very close.

  Ma Lan said that increasing A-share holdings in foreign countries will bring three major changes to the market: First, the investment structure, source, and concept of A-shares will change. Since 2016, the A-share market has exhibited the characteristics of accelerated institutionalization.Second, the “change” of investors will continue to increase the estimated weight of long-term ROE stability; third, profit defects in speculative trading behavior will increase, and individual stocks will more easily get out of the market.

  There is still room for growth in foreign countries. Whether it is the second half of the year, MSCI will raise the Chinese A-share segmentation factor to 20%, or the FTSE Russell and S & P Dow Jones Indices will gradually surpass A-shares. The average value is an important part of China’s capital opening process.This means that the continuous opening up of the capital market prevents overseas investors from ignoring the essence of the Chinese market, and the linkage between the domestic capital market and the international market will be increasingly strengthened.

  ”According to the development of international indexes, more funds will flow to China.

Zhang Jun, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter that the attractiveness of A shares to foreign countries will focus on two aspects.

Compared with the proportion of equity held by overseas investors, the restrictions on foreign exchange investment in China have been greatly reduced earlier. The continuous inflow of funds will form a scale effect on the global asset allocation and layout; thus, the downward pressure on the global economy will increase.As China ‘s economic growth performance is stable, monetary and fiscal policies continue to develop, and the capital market is relatively growing, investing in the Chinese market will yield more capital returns.

  ”The gradual improvement of the opening up of the A-share market has gradually increased, the proportion of foreign countries has gradually increased, and the overall environment of the A-share market will gradually improve.

Gradually, the gradual administrative intervention will be further reduced, the A-share market will be more market-oriented, and the trading environment will be more open and fair; instead, the gradual entry of swaps will change the scale structure of the A-share market, and industry leaders with sustained and stable profitability willMore favored by the market, smooth market fluctuations and turnover.

At the same time, it will also lead the investor behavior in the market, make real valuable investment, and rational investment will be more accepted by market participants.

Qi Zongchao said.

  Looking forward to the future, Ma Lan said that referring to the experience of emerging market countries, the policy of alternating opening of capital flows will show the three processes of “slow advancement-continuous expansion-contraction to equilibrium”, 杭州夜网论坛 and it is expected to become an important source of incremental funds for the stock market in the future.

At present, QFII’s shareholding ratio is about 2%, which has not yet reached a saturation state. Even if land-locked funds are included, there is still room for improvement in foreign shareholding ratio.